Chapter 21
William's fingers flew across the keyboard of his computer. The world had collapsed down to him, the keyboard, and the monitor. His focus on what he was doing was absolute. He had been working like that for almost eighteen hours straight. His eyes widened a little on seeing the result of his query on the screen. His fingers tapped out the next command and he watched the screen as numbers scrolled past almost too fast for the eyes to follow. William was in the grove and it all made sense to him.
The final line showed up on the monitor and William smiled at the result. A couple of keystrokes later and the program ran again. He sat back and watched the screen smiling like a maniac. It was the perfect time for him to let loose a maniacal laugh, but the thought didn't even cross his mind.
Seated at her desk, Lucy watched him from across the room. She had gone to bed and gotten up early to find that he had never come to bed that night. On entering their workroom, she could tell that he was in the zone and working at an incredibly productive rate. Rather than risk interrupting his concentration, she had slipped over to her desk and watched. It was amazing to watch someone who was so involved in the world of ideas. She understood. There were times when she lived in that same world.
William tapped a few keys and the results were copied into a spreadsheet. A minute later the printer started churning out pages. He rolled his chair across the room and picked up the first few pages disgorged by the printer. He looked at it and nodded his head. Unaware that he had an audience, he said, "Excellent."
"What?" Lucy asked seeing that he had returned from that magical world where one could occasionally swim with ideas.
"I've finished predicting all of the winners of the next election," William said.
"The election isn't for another month. A lot can happen in a month," she said.
Laughing, William said, "A lot can appear to happen in a month, but the demographics do not lie. Even if one of these candidates dies a week before the election, the results won't change."
"The polls tell a different story," Lucy said.
"The polls tell the transient story of what people are saying. What they do is far different than what they say," William countered.
"I'll accept that in part, but I still think that saying you've predicted the result a month before the election is stretching the truth a little," Lucy said. She knew that his models were getting near the point of completion, but his claim was more than a little extreme.
Leaning back in his chair, William pursed his lips in thought. He held up the papers in his hand and said, "These are my predictions. How about we make a bet?"
"What kind of bet?" Lucy asked knowing that William wasn't the type to gamble.
"I bet that I get every election correct that is on these pages," William said.
"Every election?" Lucy asked incredulously. She'd be a fool to pass up a bet like that.
"I'm talking about every election at the state and national level. That's every state legislative seat, every gubernatorial seat, and every congressional seat that is up for grabs. That's over five hundred elections. I'm saying that I have predicted who won each and every one of them. If that isn't enough, I'll add in a few mayors of large cities," William said looking at Lucy.
"Don't worry about the mayors," Lucy said studying William trying to decide if he was bluffing. She took a deep breath and asked, "What will you give me if I win the bet?"
"What would you like?" William asked.
"That's a tough question."
"Why?"
"You already give me everything that I want," Lucy answered with a smile. It was the truth. She couldn't think of anything that she wanted that he wouldn't give her anyway.
A very short discussion followed in which the stakes of the bet were laid out. Once they had agreed on terms, Lucy said, "Now get something to eat and go to bed."
"Yes, Lucy," William said with a grin. He collected the papers from the printer and rolled his chair back to his desk. He squared the papers into a neat stack and set it on his desk.
Word of the bet leaked out, although the exact details were unknown to anyone other than William and Lucy. While the staff knew the bet was about the upcoming elections, that didn't prevent them from speculating on the stakes. Barbara and Sandra were convinced that if Lucy lost, she would end up in bed with one of them while William watched the action. Of course, Barbara and Sandra disagreed on which one of them would be the bed partner.
The great question was what William had at stake. Speculation about what William had to do ran from the mundane to the bizarre. Side bets were placed suggesting that William would have to serve Lucy breakfast in bed for a month, take her to a dance, or serve as her sex slave for a night.
Just because the staff didn't know the details of the stakes, that didn't prevent them from teasing the young couple. Many of the teases were intended to identify the stakes. When Barbara had suggested to Lucy that after losing the bet that Sandra would enjoy having sex with her and William, Lucy had blushed and shaken her head. She had laughed when Sandra had suggested the same thing only involving Barbara. William had gotten similar taunts although they were more of a wink-wink, nudge-nudge variety.
Peter, the chef, was halfway convinced that William would have to cook a dinner for everyone if he lost the bet. When he had asked William about it, William had asked how he liked his lizard cooked. Halfway convinced that William was serious, Peter had shaken his head and stomped off with William's laughter ringing in his ears. After that little exchange, Peter hoped that William won the bet.
On the day of the election everyone in the household was glued to the television watching the election results. It wasn't that anyone was really interested in the outcome of most of the races, but they were interested in the outcome of the bet. The home theatre had turned into a party of sorts with pop corn, theatre candies, and soft drinks.
On many of the elections, it looked like William was wrong until the last few districts turned the numbers around. Lucy checked off one election after another amazed at the results. Looking at the last one, she said, "You predicted this election to a tenth of a percent."
"Yes," William said with a smile.
"All of the election results have been within a quarter of a percent," Lucy said looking over some of the final number updates for races that she had already marked.
"That was my margin of error," William said.
"That's ridiculous," Lucy said staring at the printed sheet. She couldn't believe what she was looking at. Shaking her head, she asked, "Did you finish the model?"
"Not yet, but I'm close. This election was basically a simple test of the core sections of the model," William answered.
"I'm still trying to simplify some of the equations," Lucy said looking over at him. There were times when his mind was absolutely fascinating. She wondered how he had managed to achieve such a remarkable result.
"I know. I coded all of those horrible equations. I plan to let the computer crunch away on them once I've settled on the input data," William said. He was pretty sure that when Lucy finished her work that his program would function a million times faster. That kind of performance would be necessary when he tried making long term projections on the social and economic behavior of the country.
Lucy looked up at the screen and saw that William had gotten another race correct. Shaking her head, she marked off the appropriate entry. She asked, "How did you do this?"
"Actually, it was a lot of hard work by Victoria," William answered gesturing to the elderly lady.
Surprised, Victoria looked at William and asked, "What do you mean?"
"I used all of that research on the public perceptions of the candidate's positions on a few key issues to frame voting profiles. Your research was remarkably accurate," William said. Shaking his head in wonder, he said, "I don't think any other person on the planet could have provided me with the data that you managed to collect."
"Thank you," Victoria said feeling pleased at having her hard work recognized.
"Such dedication to shifting out the factual information from so much chaff is a rare quality in any person. I'm lucky to have found you," William said.
"Thank you," Victoria said as a slight blush spread over her face at the praise.
"It is I who has to thank you," William said. He looked over at Lucy and said, "Do you think that Victoria deserves a reward for such dedication?"
Smiling, Lucy answered, "Sure, but what kind of reward would be appropriate?"
"How about a visit to one of the oldest archives in the world?" William asked.
"What archive would that be?" Victoria asked suddenly very interested in the discussion.
"The Pope owes someone I know a very big favor. I'm pretty sure that with his help that we can arrange for you to visit the Vatican Archives," William said. He looked at Victoria to see her reaction. She was staring at him open mouthed.
"Which archives?" Victoria asked hardly able to breath. She was going to die if he answered the Secret Archives.
"The Archivum Secretum Apostolicum Vaticanum," William answered. He had already made the call and knew that the visit had been approved.
Others could have been offered riches beyond imagining, but their pleasure wouldn't have been a tenth of what Victoria felt at the idea of visiting the Vatican Archives. Victoria asked, "Who does the Pope owe a favor and why would they arrange for me to visit the Secret Archives?"
"My Grandfather, Reverend Leroy Jones," William answered with a smile.
Lucy smiled as the other women in the room nodded at each other in a knowing fashion. William had just seduced Victoria with her heart's desire. Victoria was staring at William. Her fingers trembled in excitement at the idea of even an hour in the archives. She asked, "When?"
"After the first of the year, you will travel to the Vatican and meet with Cardinal Joseph John Scarlatti. He's an Assistant Archivist and you will work with him cataloging documents that were written between 900 and 1000 AD. They are planning on making more documents available to the scholars," William said.
Victoria let out a long low moan and slumped into her chair. Barbara smiled and turned to Sandra. In a whisper, she said, "I think she just had an orgasm."
"I think you're right," Sandra said. The two women looked at each other for a minute and then broke into laughter.
Another election result was posted and Lucy looked down at the sheet. Puzzled, she said, "What is this? It says that the initial count is for one candidate, but the final count would go to the other candidate."
"Oh, yes. I forgot to mention that one. It is going to be very close. There's one voting district that has always misreported the numbers. Tonight it will look the one candidate will win, but that will change in the morning. There'll be a recount, but the final result will stand," William answered with a smile. He had found that on the night of the election they usually counted the first hundred votes and scaled the results to the total voting count so they could go home early. The next morning they would count all of the votes and report the updated figures.
"I don't believe that," Lucy said. She had been about to concede the bet, but decided to hold off on that for the time being.
"We'll see in the morning," William said.
That little announcement was not greeted with much happiness by the staff in the room. They all looked from one to the other. Finally, Barbara asked, "What are the stakes on this bet?"
William and Lucy winked at each other. Lucy answered, "You won't know until the bet is settled."
Sandra asked, "Oh come on! If you lose, are you going to have a threesome with William and Barbara?"
"If William loses, is he going to cook a lizard for Peter?" Rudy asked provoking a laugh from everyone with the exception of Peter.
The Chef just grumbled and said, "I hope not."
Cathy looked over at Rudy before she asked, "Is William going to end up being Lucy's sex slave for a night?"
Juanita looked at the normally quiet young woman and then at Rudy. She asked, "Cathy, have you got some hidden desires that Rudy ought to know about?"
Cathy blushed and answered, "No."
"I know all her desires," Rudy said with a grin.
"Are you sure?"
"Um, maybe not," he admitted earning an elbow in the ribs from Cathy.
Juanita said, "Well, I'm positive that William will be taking Lucy out dancing if he loses."
Amanda asked, "Why do you say that?"
"No one has ever seen William dance," Juanita answered.
"I know I haven't," Amanda said pointing to her cheap sunglasses. Everyone laughed at the obvious joke. She turned her head in Lucy's direction and asked, "Has he ever taken you dancing?"
"Does the horizontal tango count?"
"No," Juanita said.
"In that case, I'd have to say we've never gone dancing," Lucy said. She looked puzzled for a second and then turned to face William. More curious than upset, she asked, "Why is that?"
"I don't know," William said shrugging his shoulders. He asked, "Do you want me to take you dancing?"
"Sure," she answered.
"I'll take some lessons and then we'll go dancing," William said. If Lucy wanted to go dancing, they would go dancing.
Juanita sat back in her chair and said, "I guess that wasn't the bet."
"You'll know when the last election result is in," William said.
The tension around the breakfast table was high as the entire staff waited for William and Lucy to make their appearance. Victoria had a paper with all of the election results on it and had checked it against the predictions made by William. They knew the outcome of the bet.
William and Lucy walked into the dining room holding hands. After taking their seats and filling their cups with coffee from the carafe, William asked, "Did you know that breakfast is the most important meal of the day?"
"Yes. Do you want to know the results of the election?" Victoria asked holding up her printout.
Lucy and William shared a smile. Lucy answered, "After breakfast. I'd hate to have to settle the bet on an empty stomach."
"Same here," William said just in time for Peter to deliver waffles to the young couple.
The entire staff groaned at the news. For the next forty-five minutes, Lucy and William made a great production out of eating their breakfast. William had spent almost ten minutes asking detailed questions about the waffles and their history. When he had started asking about the kind of vanilla extract Peter had used in their preparation, Peter finally said, "Enough with the questions. It's time to settle the bet!"
William and Lucy burst out into laughter. Finally, William asked, "So who won the bet?"
"You did," Victoria answered.
"Ah," William said. He turned to Lucy and said, "I guess it is time for you to pay up."
"Here? In front of everyone?" she asked.
"Yes," William answered. He turned to face Lucy.
Everyone leaned forward wondering what Lucy was going to do. They all held their breath as she delivered a kiss. Sitting back, she asked, "Was that satisfactory?"
"Very," William answered to a very quiet room.
Unable to believe what she had seen, Barbara asked, "Was that it? You bet a kiss?"
"Yes," Lucy answered.
"What would William have done if you had won?"
"I would have kissed her," William answered with a smile.
Peter left the room mumbling, "At least it didn't involve having to eat lizard."
Sandra was shaking her head and asked, "Do you mean I lost sleep last night over a kiss?"
Lucy and William were alone in their office. Lucy looked at the sheet of paper and said, "That was an amazing accomplishment."
"I've still got to double check the precinct by precinct numbers," William said.
"Still, all of the races predicted to within a quarter of a percentage point. That's an incredible result," Lucy said. She stared at the equations on the wall thinking about the kind of power that being able to make predictions like that could produce. She said, "I have to know how you did it."
"It was actually a lot easier than it sounds. I looked at population densities and mapped that to voter preferences. Less dense populations tend to be more conservative than highly dense populations. The trick is establishing where the population break points are. That is, determining at what population density the voters swing from conservative to liberal. That point depends how on far the population is from a major population center and how each candidate is perceived by the population," William answered.
"I'm not sure that I follow," Lucy said frowning at the overly simplistic explanation.
William turned to the computer and pulled up a voting district by voting district map of New York State. Each voting district had an associated average population per square mile notation next to it. In addition, it had a distance to a key population center. William pointed to the two numbers. He explained, "These two numbers influence local attitudes towards government and social programs. When the population density is low and the distance from a major population center is high, then people tend to trust the government, but are against big social programs. When the density is high and the distance from a major population center is low, then people tend to favor big social programs, but distrust the government."
"I'm not sure that I believe that," Lucy said.
"Look. If you live in a high density area, you must rely upon government services and social programs. You can't go out in your backyard and burn your trash when there are thousands of people around you doing the same thing. It just doesn't work. So you rely upon trash collectors, fire departments, and police forces to maintain order. Of course, you don't want them to be too intrusive in your life, so you don't trust them.
"In a low population density area, the trash collector isn't going to drive fifteen miles out to your place to pick up your trash. You have to take care of it yourself and tend to underestimate the need for such government services. Government is basically local, small, and transparent. You know the people in office. You trust them because the government isn't intrusive in your life.
"The two extremes have very different perspectives on what is necessary from their government. They vote based on those perspectives. Intermediate population densities have perspectives that tend to grow more in favor of positions taken within the highly dense population areas when they are close to urban areas. Again, there is a slight difference in the government services they expect."
"So how did you predict the outcome of the election?" Lucy asked fascinated by William's explanation.
"Simple, for each voting district I created a voting profile based on those two numbers: the population density and the distance from a population center. I placed each candidate on a spectrum between the two extreme positions based on the popular perception of their stand on the issues. I then applied the voting profile for each district to the candidates based on that classification. I summed the predicted votes across all precincts to get a final number. In essence, I simulated the election," William said.
"That is amazing," Lucy said. This result rivaled his ability to predict the future before he had lost his foresight. She wondered how he would have done with his gift to see the future added to the set of equations he had developed. She knew that he wouldn't abuse the power that the combination would give him, but that wouldn't hold true for anyone else. The thought of what someone else would do with that power was frightening.
"Yes, it worked just as I thought it would."